Some 70% of Respondents Include Nuclear Power as Future Option

With the global trend toward the liberalization of electric power markets, electric companies around the world are being forced to make great changes. That will have an inevitable impact on the future development of nuclear power generation. The Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), in view of that situation, carried out a survey on the subject, "The Liberalization of Electric Power Markets and Nuclear Power Generation." A total of 16 countries and 34 companies (including countries that are planning to construct nuclear power plants) made valid responses.

According to the survey, it was learned that all the responding companies believed that nuclear power generation would be continued even when markets were liberalized. Furthermore, 24 of the responding companies - 70% of the total - said that they would include nuclear power generation as one of their future options. In contrast, eight of the companies said that they would not include nuclear power generation as an option, for such reasons as anti-nuclear power policies on the part of the government, no need for a base-load electric source, and economic uncertainties.

Gas-thermal Power Seen as Power Source with Most to Gain from Liberalization

When the companies were asked specifically about the power source they thought would gain the most advantages under liberalization, the most common answer - made by 14 of the companies - was gas-thermal power (including combined-cycle generation). Nuclear power generation was cited by eight of the electric power companies, although some of them attached the following opinions: "predicated on the removal of political obstacles" (one German company), "existing nuclear power plants" (one German company), "advantageous in the long term" (two U.S. companies). Meanwhile, there were assorted opinions about which power sources would be put at a disadvantage under market liberalization, with three companies in Germany - where the introduction of renewable energies is relatively advanced - citing such renewable energies as wind power and solar energy as being disadvantageous. There were seven electric power companies that identified nuclear power generation as being put at a disadvantage. There were six companies -- four of which were in the U.S. -- that cited coal-thermal power as being more disadvantageous under market liberalization.

Merits of Nuclear Power Generation: Environmental Considerations and Supply Stability

When asked what they thought were the merits of nuclear power generation, the electric companies surveyed gave first ranking to environmental aspects (24 companies), followed by the stability of supply (15 companies). Companies were able to give multiple responses. There were ten countries and 15 companies that mentioned the greater economy of nuclear power as its merit. Besides those answers, five companies mentioned cost stability (i.e., fuel costs accounting for a small part of the total), and four mentioned the diversification of power sources.

Poor Economy Is Most Commonly Voiced Concern about New Plant Orders

When asked what they thought were the major hindrances facing new orders for nuclear power plants, the electric companies surveyed cited economic factors, such as high investment costs, as the major factor (13 companies). That was followed, in order, by the (lack of) public understanding (nine companies), political opposition (eight companies), (complicated) permit and approval procedures (six companies), and (unsolved) radioactive waste disposal problems (five companies). Multiple responses were permitted. In addition, three European electric power companies mentioned that new base-load power sources were unnecessary, as the expected growth in electricity power demand was not so great.

High Level of Interest in New Types of LWRs

As regards the reactor output they desired in the future construction of NPPs, the respondents most commonly cited the 1000 to 1500 MW range, with 18 companies answering that way. In addition, five companies said that they thought the 500MW to 800 MW range was the most appropriate. Also, when asked what type of reactor they would adopt (when constructing a new plant), almost all of the companies mentioned LWRs, except two electric companies in Canada, which cited CANDU reactor. Meanwhile, ten of the companies gave specific names of new types of reactors, in view of the developments being made by various vendors. Those include EPRs (European pressurized water reactor, being jointly developed by Siemens of Germany and Framatom of France; 1500 MW), SWR1000s (BWR being developed by Siemens; 1000MW capacity), ABWRs, and improved PWRs. There were also two power utility companies that mentioned HTGRs (high-temperature gas reactors) as candidates.

Additional Improvements Sought in Safety and Economy

When asked what characteristics they sought in newly constructed NPPs, the companies cited the following factors in almost equal numbers (16 and 14 companies, respectively): improvement in economy, and improvement in safety (including passive safety). Both responses far outnumbered the rest of the choices. Multiple answers were allowed. There were also several electric power companies that mentioned the ease of getting approvals and permits, as well as a more standardized nuclear reactor, and improvement in reliability.

Passive Approach to Environmental Issues

When asked whether market liberalization was beneficial to electric power companies, about half of the respondents said that it would be so, both in the short term and the long term. Concerning whether or not market liberalization would benefit consumers, more than half of the companies said the influence would be positive. When asked to rank the four factors of economy, supply stability, diversification and environmental measures as far as their management strategy was concerned, in the midst of liberalization, the companies most frequently cited economy (14 companies), followed by supply stability (ten companies).

While 26 of the companies said they were including the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in their management strategy, only one of them listed environmental measures as its first priority. That shows how market liberalization is not producing a situation where companies are actively grappling with environmental issues.

As for specific measures to be taken toward market liberalization, the following actions were cited: (1) cost reductions in line with personnel reductions, (2) closure of high-cost generation plants, (3) the export and import of electric power, (4) retreat from certain businesses such as generation, transmission and distribution of electricity, (5) mergers and acquisitions, (6) entrance into foreign markets, (7) boosted output, (8) extension of operation permits.

Some 26 companies expected electric-power demand to grow in the future. Most of the five companies that predicted no growth in electric-power demand were European electric power companies, and three of those were in Germany. All the electric power companies in the U.S. and Canada foresaw an increase in electric-power demand. There were 21 companies that answered that the construction of new plants was necessary, while there were nine that didn't see such a need. Most of the latter were from Europe, and six of those were electric power companies in Germany.